Do Remittances Reduce Poverty? Empirical Study from Indonesia
Ayus Ahmad Yusuf , 1Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon, Indonesia Abdelrehim Awad , 2University of Bisha, Saudi Arabia Abdul Muizz Abdul Wadud Kasyful Anwar , Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon, Indonesia Asmiyati Khusnul Maryam , Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon, Indonesia
Articles
| Open Access
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of Indonesian Migrant Workers (IMW) remittances on poverty, taking into account the mediating role of regional economic growth, using balanced panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia over 2020–2024. A two-stage mediation approach was applied using Random Effects (GLS) estimation with robust standard errors. Model selection was conducted through the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Breusch-Pagan LM Test, which consistently confirmed Random Effects as the best estimator for both stages. Mediation effects were assessed using the Sobel test. Stage 1 results show remittances have a positive and significant effect on regional economic growth (β = 0.5678, p < 0.01). Stage 2 results show remittances directly and significantly reduce poverty (β = −2.1649, p < 0.05), while regional economic growth is not statistically significant (p = 0.508). The Sobel test confirms that economic growth does not serve as a mediator (Z = 0.656, p = 0.512), indicating that remittances reduce poverty mainly through direct household income transfers rather than through stimulating aggregate regional output. Control variables HDI and UNEMP are both significant. These findings align with the short-run predictions of the Lewis Two-Sector Model and the non-inclusive growth phenomenon in Indonesia. Policy implications include reducing remittance transfer costs, improving financial literacy among IMW families, and pursuing more inclusive economic growth strategies in migrant-sending regions.
Keywords
Remittances, Poverty, Economic Growth, Indonesian Migrant Workers
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